A shadow Government set to rule post-Meles Ethiopia
As expected, although they have no choice but to elevate Hailemariam Desalegn formally to replace Meles’ position, the ruling elites have formed a shadow government that will make all the real decisions behind the scenes. This shadow government – a “transition time caretaker” – is made up of seven members. According to individuals privy to the process of selection, the justification given for the appointment is that the shadow government should be made up of one person from each of EPRDF’s member parties, and one each from key government agencies – intelligence, foreign affairs, and the military. Below is the list.
| Name | Representing | Parent Party | Ethnicity |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Se'are Mekonnen | Military | TPLF | Tigrean |
| Getachew Assefa | Intelligence | TPLF | Tigrean |
| Berhane Gebrekiristos | Foreign Affairs | TPLF | Tigrean |
| Seyum Mesfin | TPLF | TPLF | Tigrean |
| Bereket Simon | ANDM | ANDM | Tigrean (Eritrean) |
| Kuma Demeksa | OPDO | OPDO | Unknown (Tigrean/Amhara) |
| Hailemarim Desalegn | SEPDM | SEPDM | Walayta |
It is astonishing that despite the nominal diversity of parent parties and government agencies represented, all but one of these individuals are from a single ethnic group, Tigre, which makes up just 6% of the country. That sole member is Hailemariam Desalegn, the soon-to-be prime minister. Although a founding member of the the Amhara National Democratic Movement (previously Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement), it is a well known fact that Berekt Simon is an Eritrean Tigre. In similar fashion, despite the fact that he is a founding member of OPDO, the ethnic identity of Kuma Demeksa is rather ambiguous. In this WikiLeaks report, former US Ambassador Donald Yamamoto writes that “Kuma Demeksa, a.k.a. Taye Teklehaimanot, was born in Oromiya Region of Amhara parents in 1958.” However, Kuma’s comrades from the days of Eritrean POW and later in the Tigrean desert claim that he was a Tigrean, an assertion supported by his classmates in Gore (Ilubabor) who testify that his parents spoke Tigrigna.
Regardless of his ethnic identity, another WikiLeaks report sheds light on why Kuma, just like Hailemariam, has been included in the shadow government. During his time as a defense minister, the American Ambassador evaluated him as a “figurehead deferring overwhelmingly to Tigreans like Samora and Prime Minister Meles on substantive military issues.”
Aside from the ethnic dimension, the composition of this shadow government also points to which one of the TPLF factions have the upper hand, at least in the short term. The absence from this “caretaker committee” of heavyweights such as Abay Tsehaye, Sebehat Nega (the party’s godfather), Abay Woldu, and Arkebe Oqubay – individuals considered guardians of the ‘original’ TPLF – suggests that the conservative wing has been pushed aside. The choice of General Se’are Mekonnen – rather than his boss, General Samora Yunous, who is still formally the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces – further strengthens this suspicion.
Note that this faction has been pushing for Arkebe to replace Meles for some time. In fact in 2008 they almost achieved that objective. According to another WikiLeaks report , during the 2008 TPLF party congress Arkebe “received more votes than both Meles and Seyoum Mesfin, [but] recognizing the center of gravity surrounding Meles, Arkebe declined the party Chairmanship and Vice Chairmanship.” Patrick Gilkes, at the time strategic adviser to Meles, who provided this information to the Americans, “reported that the vote of dissent stemmed largely from lingering frustrations among the party over the still-unresolved territorial dispute with Eritrea over Badme … as well as over the economic downturn which has taken a huge toll on the Tigray region.” In a previous article I wrote that “a possible split along factional lines could result in the conservative elements launching an attack on Eritrea in order to generate nationalist support. Such a split could also catalyze the disaffected population to seize the opportunity and go out to the street to bring down the regime.” Moreover, the current set up of rule by committee of equals ( minus the outsiders) is not sustainable. Sooner or later one of them, the first among equals will have control by purging challengers and securing loyalty of the rest, like Meles did in 2001.
Therefore, this shadow government is a worrisome development as it creates a multiple stress situation which could increase the chances of instability in a post Meles Ethiopia. First, although one group appears to have the upperhand, it only signals the looming intra-TPLF factional struggle that will likely play out in the weeks and months to come. In the absence of a clear front runner to TPLF’s chairmanship, and the split among veterans (i.e. Seyum Mesfin & Berhane on side; Sebehat, Abay Tsehaye & Abay Woldu on the other), this could fracture the rank and file and the large base of the party.
Another stress point comes from the affiliate parties who will be unhappy with the re-imposition of the Tigrean monopoly as the only real powerhouse. While they lack the military force to wrestle for power, they can use the administrative apparatus at their disposal to passively undermine the ruling elites. Lacking a decisive singular leader like Meles and bogged down into their own internal friction, the Tigrean elites will have difficulty ensuring loyalty of the surrogate parties. In fact, in order to reinforce themselves, the warring factions of TPLF are likely to reach out to the surrogate parties, elevating them into active participation in the scramble to fill the vacuum left by Meles.
The potential administrative paralysis that results from a factional struggle could lead to a third stress point–exacerbation of the widespread grievance among the population. We have already witnessed the tell-tale signs of this over the past two months. Following Meles’ disappearance, it was reported that capital flight spiked, investment slowed down, foreign exchange reserve was suspended, and many infrastructure projects were put on hold as the prime minister’s office could not approve them. Thus, the looming power struggle could worsen the economic situation making the already high cost of living unbearable, particularly for the urban dwellers. This economic problem, when added to the (unemployed) youth bulge and catalyzed with the emerging social media savvy movements, will have intense external pressure on the status quo.
It is unfortunate that instead of using this opportunity to put the country on the path to an open society with equitable distribution of wealth and power, the ruling elites have chosen to further alienate the rest of the country , risking an uncertain future for themselves and the region at large.
——————————
Jawar Mohammed is a graduate student at Columbia University, and a political analyst with focus on the Horn of Africa. His articles are available at www.gulelepost.com. He can be reached at jawarmd@gmail.com
Jawar Mohammed is a graduate student at Columbia University, and a political analyst with focus on the Horn of Africa. His articles are available at www.gulelepost.com.
Let us wek up be strong the time is now for freedom !
obbo jawar keep up the good job, congratulation on your new website gulele.its nice to hear your voice and your writting I always enjoy from time when I came to know you.
keep up the fight for oromos please when people are selling oromos like a cake
komba
Dear Obbo Jawar,
Thank you very much for your insightful article on the political developments in Ethiopia. You are increasingly becoming one of the influential commentators on contemporary Ethiopian body politic. You are the spokesperson for hitherto marginalized southern elites. Keep up the good job because your commentaries and news articles are very informative and forward looking. One question for you though: why is the parliamentary session scheduled for today to swear-in Haile Mariam Desalegn, a.k.a. King TONA II, delayed? Are the hardcore TPLF elites giving it a second thought at appointing the Wolayta man?
Here we go again , so called analyst, rascist diaspora. so what if the ruling party is from tigray as long as they do the job.The Amharas had power for centuries what did we get …zilch war , poverty. at least the tigrean (Meles) did what the so called elite amharas couldnt manage .(by the way i am not from Tigray)
Obbo Jawar really when I was first accept your request on facebook I imagined like others my fellow face book users, but your an exceptional one. I am proud of you that your info is change those who are under the “shadow of death”OPDO.
Obviously there are few who benefited from the tyrant (there is no denying that). And here is one of them called Abdul calling names others, surprising thing is Abdul (the guy commenting here) is one of the ignorant ones that he is even too lazy to read the last two posts by Jawar (by the way great writer and analyst) and seems that he couldn’t understand the misery others pass through (i mean the lucky ones since most of them died in prison or are still in prison).
Regardless of this I believe there is still a chance to bring some changes so lets see what’s gonna happen.
Obbo Jawar you are very very strong man. I appreciate you fo your latest information.Let tach all the others.
Obbo JAwar,
Naganyii haadursuu.
Xinxalikee heeduu namadamaqisa. Jabaduu itt nuu fufii. Jabadhuu kormakoo.
Ammaf Nagaatti.
Misa isaatiin jabaadhu. Waan harkkiye dubbattu hindhaga’iin.
I MUST THANK YOU FOR POSTING THIS ARTICLES FOLLOWING I WOULD LIKE TO SHARE MY PERSONAL VIEW A S FOLLOW AS
FOR DEAR OROMO PEOPLE IN THE WORLD
I HOPE THE ONLY SOLUTION FOR OUR FREEDOM TO BE COME SOON IS OUR UNITY , UNITY !!! WE ALL OROMOS WE SHOULD STOPE TO BLEM EACH OTHER FOR THE PAST AND LET IT BE UNITED ONCE AGAIN BEFORE WAYANEE TRY TO RULLING OUR LIFE AND KILLING OUR WOMENS AND CHILDREN AND OUR ELDERLY PEOPLE FOR THE NEXT DECADE AND BEYOND , WE SHOULD WEAK UP AND ASK OUR SELFES AS AN OROMO WHAT SHOULD I CONTRIBUTE BEFORE MY TIME PAST , IT IS A WEAK UP WEAK UP TIME FOR ALL OROMOS !!!!!
THANK YOU , GOD BLESS OROMIA !!!!!!
Jawar:
Those are all possible senarios. But I beg to differ bunching Arkebe Oqubay with the hard-liners of the elities. BTW, you seem to be very infatuated with their ethinicities which is rather disappointing.
Kormicha( Jawar)
It is my first time to visit your new site.very rare oromos of high calibre served their people consciously.As you know they served their peoples enemy blindedly and knowingly. your world class poletical analysis concerning the horn is higly appreciated.keep it up man.ALLAH BLESS you.
Jawwee, maal siin jedharee! Jabaadhuu malee!
I hate woyyane but I really appreciate their smartness. They are doing whatever they want even though other people are crying and insulting them. You poor diaspora, show by action otherwise stop complaining. If you can not over through woyane, let them toss you around. Good analysis Jawar. There is no way that other ethnic group can come to power unless by force. All Hailemariam or Kuma are puppet.Everything is under TPLF. We all know this. If we want to change this, let fight them and die for freedome, otherwise live bending under you “geta=Woyane”
Not a single Oromo
Not a single Amhara
Not a single Muslim
Not even a pretense
What an arrogance.
This, for the most part, is a fictional story packaged as a factual reporting. It is a voice of a dissident political exile whose specific enemy, of which he has a track record of spinning against, is the current ruling government. You can be better Jawar. You are increasing ethnic and religious tensions in an even higher tempo than you claim to fight.
Please please stop!
YOU KNOW …THIS IS NOT THE PEOPLE OF ETHIOPIA ARE NOT AWARE OF. THANKS KEEP IT UP!
what a superb analysis of the Tigreyan dictatorship in Ethiopia which,unfortunately, the West perpetuates through their strategic interest in the Horn of Africa.
It is high time the Oromos, Amharas, Ogadenis and the rest of the colonized Ethiopians united and rose up to free themselves from the brutal grip of the cruel Tigreyan clique in power.
Ethnic tension is not new. The Tigrians just happened to be exploiting that and using it to their advantage. The TPLF is never about Ethiopia. It is about ruling Ethiopia and building Tigray at the expense of specially the Southern Ethiopia that was occupied by the Abyssinian Menelik. Look at the land lease and all of the of the resources that are being handed out to the Tigriyans! How is this any different from what Menelik did when he invaded the south and took over their land destroyed the lives of millions and created the land lord Amhara class?
Dear Jawar,
So what is your source for writing such an elaborate article? “Individuals that are privy to the process?” Really? A supposedly learned man like you is quoting individuals in writing such an analysis? And you are making your readers so emotional and they hail you as an analyst?
You analysis is stripped of fact and full of heresey, quoting wikileaks as its source for some of your assumptions? You should be ashamed of yourself. You are very clever in your deciet that you carefuly orchestrated the names of your so called shadow goverment to be able to play your ethnic and relegion cards. The names that you carefully suggested are done purposely to incite this feelings in your readers. Seare instead of Samora? Kuma rather than another person from OPDO? to vailidate your witch hunt on the real enthniciy of Kuma and to make sure that you say that there is no Oromo in the shadow government?
Dear readers who commented, I think most of you live in the US and it seems you did not learn to first question the source of the fact instead of being lead by your emotions? Has not the country you have adopted teach you anything? To question, to be rational?
Jawar, by the way, since you seem to be obssessed with the ethnic card, did you ever make a headcount of the enthicity of the fighters that sacrificed their lives in liberating Ethiopia from Mengistu’s rule? What was the majority? Or is it ok for the majority of those that that died to be of certain ethnicity and ok for them to die but not ok for them to participate in the building of the country? What bigotry?
Stop playing with people’s emotions, and stop inciting hatred. Your article is full of falacy, untrue and unfounded.
Dear Mr. Miss Liyuwork
HI
I think you are a puppet TPLF made renegade that has been looting, plundering the resource of the subjugated people by allying yourself with the tyrant , brutal, dictator……and we the oppressed people of Ethiopia easily identify you and your subordinate so that you have been dancing and enjoying for the past 21 years and still wishing to pave the same way even after the death of your full of crime regime and state so my advice for you and your regime is to use this opportunity to bring a peaceful power transfer in the country and if that is not the case it is not only you but also your coming generation will cry on the Ethiopian soil for the rest of their life for the atrocities conducted by you and your puppet organizations.
Dear Liyuwork.
You did not provide any proof that his assertion is wrong. There is no doubt that the Tigriyan corrupt elite is dominating every aspect of Ethiopians lives imaginable. The world knows that but people like you don’t seem to see any problem with that. Some of us do and we will do every thing we can to change it.
Mr/mrs liyuwork, may I TELL YOU THAT ALL MASTERS HAVE DOGS.YOUR REFELCTION IS JUST WITNESSED YOU ARE ONE OF THOSE POVERTY STRICKEN HUNGERD DOG CRYING FOR SURVIVAL AS WEYANE CADRE.LEAVE ALONE TO CRITICIZE ONE OF THE BEST EVER PRODUCED YOUNG OROMO POLETICIAN IE-JAWAR-YOU HAVE NO THE BRAIN TO UNDESRTSAND WHAT HE WROTE/writs. SORRY TO SAY THAT.WITH CONFUSED IDEOLOGY TPLF CONFUSED FOR 21 YEARS.WE ARE AT THE TURNING POINT.TPLF DOMONATED EPRDF STARTED TO COLLAPSE. FOR HABESHANS POWER IS A MATTER OF SURVIVAL, FOR OTHERS ITS A MATTER OF LIBERty. stop your venom and prepare your self for changes that can be accpted and comfortable for all.If not you will go hell unwillingly with Melese very soon.
Ethiopia, yaltadelech Hager. May the Creator give Ethiopia a leader that brings all of us together, Amen.
Niabe johar keep it up!