Challenges Facing Hailemariam Desalegn (Interview)
* Below is Q&A I had with a foreign journalists on what might come of Hailemariam Dessalegn’s premiership.
Q. As a southerner, what challenges might he face from within the Tigrayan-dominated party?
JM. Hailemariam comes from a historically marginalized ethnic group, Wolaita, with almost no presence at the center of power and takes leadership of a state where all important pillars of power, the military, intelligence, foreign affairs and economy, are dominated by Tigreans. This means there is little chance for him to exercise real power. As his subordinates are more influencial than him, he will have great difficulty in getting his own policy implemented. Because any political or economic reform in the country requires some level of redistribution at a cost to the currently privileged groups, any such initiative by the new premier will be effectively resisted and obstructed. The only way he could possibly be able to counterbalance the negative influence of the entrenched Tigrean elites has to be by reaching out to the affiliate parties and trying to curve out and develop a support base. But such attempt will be perceived as a serious threat by the Tigreans who will take measures to swiftly neutralize him. Therefore, whether he stays three years or more, Hailemariam is unlikely to leave any foot print his own on the country’s politics.
Q. What are the consequences if he does not unify the party successfully?
JM: The EPRDF has never been a coalition of the willing, it is rather a fragile organization kept together with a clientelist system and the coercive capabilities of the TPLF and manipulative skills of Meles. The TPLF still maintains the coercive apparatus but in the absence of Meles’ Machiavellian skills, securing continued loyalty of other organizations would not be easy. However, if the fragile coalition is shaken, Hailemariam will have little role as the struggle will be a three way race among the Tigrean, Oromo and Amhara elites. Basically while he might tilt the balance of factional struggle one way or another by throwing the weight of his symbolic position, he will not be a game changer. Thus, while Meles, through his skills and power, was a unifying figure for the coalition, Hailemariam lacks both and consequently will have insignificant role in either keeping the party united or fracture it.
Q. What economic challenges does he face (specifically regarding inflation and maintenance of GTP goals)?
JM. He is inheriting myriad of economic problems. The first is skyrocketing living cost that has become unbearable, particularly for the large urban poor. The other is high youth unemployment as just a tiny fraction of those who graduated in the last couple of years have secured jobs. Controlling inflation that has been pushing up food price is another problem he has to deal with. These all have to be dealt with while maintaining the ambitious and costly mega projects planned under the GTP. Most of the external funding and foreign direct investment promised to the GTP were attracted based on the assumption that the country would remain stable and under Meles’ guidance, or even if he stepped aside, from behind the scene. Both China and the West relied on this assumption. Now that Meles’ death has thrown a cloud of uncertainty about the future, foreign investment, especially of the private sector, is going to slow down causing possible halt to the various mega projects planned under the GTP. Therefore, if Hailemariam is going to maintain financial flow, he has to find a way to restore confidence of both domestic and international investors. To do so, aside from securing political stability, he also needs to surround himself with respectable and recognized economic advisers by bringing in professionals technocrats with proven track record in the academia as well as the business sector.
Q. What are the consequences if he does not address economic troubles?
JM. He has to find a way to absorb the tens of thousands of new graduates into the economy. He also has to reduce the growing and highly visible income inequality, particularly in the capital. Failure to reduce unemployment, cost of living by stabilizing inflation (also solving the shortage ) and maintain investment flow to ensure promises of the GTP, could lead to political unrest and popular upraising.
Q. Should he be worried about religious fracturing in the country, especially in light of recent Muslim protests?
JM. No. There is no tension among the various religious groups in the country but rather between religious groups and the state. The ruling party has been attempting to control religious institutions in order to use them to its political advantage. It was such manipulation that led to the ongoing Muslim protest. Thus, unless the government takes its hands off religious affairs and release Muslim leaders and clerics from detention, the ongoing protest will continue and eventually embolden the people of other faiths to join in, making revolution a likely outcome. Yet, although this weekly protest has been going on for 10 long months, there has not be a single incident of inter-religious conflict. Therefore, regardless of how intense the confrontation between Muslim protesters and the government might get, I do not anticipate a horizontal conflict across religious fault-lines.
Q. As a relatively unknown character, what difficulty will he face proving himself a capable leader?
JM. His biggest challenge is to dispel the widely held perception that he will be a puppet for the Tigrean elites. One way of doing this is to avoid being overshadowed with powerful and recognizable figures. But to gain respect, he will have to prove it by shaking up the establishment through reshuffling of powerful men, particularly the military bras. To have any chance at exercising real power, overhauling the security establishment is a must.
Q. How can he balance pressures from West to open up democracy, increase tolerance for opposition and human rights, while maintaining stability at home and appeasing hardliners?
JM. The West currently is nervously watching the uncertainty surrounding post Meles Ethiopia. They wish this opportunity could be used to reform the system but they probably will not push for significant change due to fear instability. Therefore I do not think they will exert meaningful pressure on the regime to open up the political system and respect human rights. Moreover, in the Western, particularly US, foreign policy, national interest almost always overrides concern for human rights abroad. Since Ethiopia is seen as vital regional strategic partner of the West, its likely they will continue to turn blind eye on human rights violation and political repression under Hailemariam as much as they did during Meles’ rein.
Therefore, any political reform has to come either through initiative by the regime or must be induced from below via mass mobilization. For Hailemariam, introducing political reform by opening up to democracy is going to be a near impossible task, yet with huge reward if he can do it. Unless initiated by the Tigrean elites, any effort at opening up the system will be strongly resisted by the establishment so much that Hailemariam could risk being removed. But if he has the stamina to fight for such initiatives, he could receive an overwhelming support from other members of the coalition and the larger public that could possibly help him offset resistance from the privileged elites.
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Jawar Mohammed is political analysts and graduate student at Columbia University. He can be reached at jawarmd@gmail.com. His articles can be accessed at www.gulelepost.com
Jawar Mohammed is a graduate student at Columbia University, and a political analyst with focus on the Horn of Africa. His articles are available at www.gulelepost.com.
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I like what you are doing.We the Oromians are huge in number but as you can see from this development it is sad this Tigrian Libration Albenian style communist extrimists chose war with the oromo people.They don’t even think the feature safty of their people.Oromia needs more young talents like you and Ademo.
Keep it up body.We need to unit our people at any cost.
Freedom to the Oromo people!!!!
Death to the TPLF!
Oh man, please don’t narrow down the essence of the interview. This was an eloquent interview response with persuasive analysis that, I would say, most Ethiopians could agree.
Jawar,
What you are doing is really indispensable for our nation. Just keep it up!
OPDOs must think who they are, what credit they are given by Tigrian Minority groups, and Oromos well too in the name which they are conducting their own business!!!!!!!!!!!
It is very good speech of you as always.
Thank you our young best political commentator for such excellent analysis how the politics of the empire pretty gridlock by the abyssinian greedy politics particularlly by the Tigray minority regime who determined to rule the empire otherwise they are preparing themselves to estabilish their prosperous Tigray Republic.
When the old ahmara regime too struggling hard infulenced by nostaligia to re-establish the chauvinist regime, the Oromos and other oppressed nations left with only one choice firing up a bitter struggle for Indpendency by any cost. With such abyssinian greedy politics addios to the democratization of the empire.
Oromiyaa shall be free!
by true Oromiyaans united by Oromummaa
I credit your in depth analysis of the pros and cons of having HD as PM, especially a challenges for HD in an event of radical reform. Although I agree with most of your points, I have my personal view points on some areas.
The position of PM as it stipulated in the Ethiopian Constitution is clear. HD as PM will have all the powers unreservedly as late PM MZ had. The PM position by itself comes with huge independent powers which the person in question can utilise through their personal qualities. Therefore, if HD is a wise and genius man, he can easily escape tplf’s old guards influence step-by-step by taking reformist actions very slowly but radically in line with EPRDF policies (As we know eprdf has paper polished policy arguments). For this to happen, however, he must first ensure that he has got the right and independent advisors around him. He must project a strong leadership of short period in time rather than a puppet man of long period. He must also expect the consequences of his good vision for Ethiopia may cost his life too. Once he steps in reform actions, I believe all oppositions including the OLF would come to around-table negotiation.
On the other hand, we know very well that a support from oppositions does not guarantee your position or your safety, especially in a country like Ethiopia. We also know that popular support does not work in uncivilised countries such as ours. It is only the power and shrewdness of the individual in power which overwhelms the power of the mass. If HD is a man of yes but not a man of no at times, we will not see any chnges and HD may possibly serve as nominee for next election, which eprdf will easly win.
As to the military, I have doubt that the 58 generals from tplf are self-serving puppets. They do not have any strategic political views and consequently, have little political maturity. They are simply there to amass wealth and to shoot at times when they are told to do so. They have no interpersonal qualities as such to ensure global support particularly, the support from the USA in an event of possible coup,
Your analysis is timely and in depth. Thanks Allah we have atleast somone which we refer to.
correction: In my response article, first line of last paragraph I meant, ‘I have no doubt that the 58 generals from tplf are self-serving puppets’.
I know 99.6 % of Gulelepost visitors are Oromo. But I want to say to Oromo youth something. I am tired of claiming of being majority. All Oromo say we are mojority majority, we are 40 million, bla bla, what i need now is show me to a leader, not a majority. Today Wolayita got power while you fighting and claim to be majority with empty handed, tomorrow you will be ruled. What i have observed lately from Oromo also they have hope on OPDO. Leenca, first examine the development happened before HD promoted to PM. The TPFL upgraded 23 general from Tigrain out of 37. They secured their power. How many Oromo General did you see? By the way is OPDO really exist? Tell me
I have been attentively following your political analysis since last two years. You are an amazing young political analyst. I have good respect to you. I am living in the Ethiopian empire and watching the current steps being taking by EPRDF. They are excluding Oromo from Ethiopian politics and wanted to make power control under Semitics. It seems that Amhara is reorganizing themselves and saliently coming to power. Enough is enough the Oromo people should be united and prepare themselves for bitter struggle and get back its father land which is under the empire. I hope Qeerroo struggle will free Oromia from dictators and I am determined to contribute for the struggle. The current practices have ensured that OPDO will not save the Oromo people as there is no nationalist Oromo in its member. Shanful for OPDO
How do the big belied OPDO cadres respond to the response they were offered _ just being ignored?
the kinds of abadulla, not Aba duulaa, etc., TPLF will totaly ignore them as minelik did to habtegiorgis Dinegde during his old ages.
Let we All Oromo people Lee under his feet & hung on the Back of The Almighty God son,yes us;Because all powers come from Him.
I personally admire the writer! Our fathers always telling us we are majority, and now you brothers singing the same song. Most commentators in this article are narrow minded! you are still talking the past history. history is history! which helps us to correct our past mistakes. You mindless diaspora, we are sick and tired with your meaningless propaganda. Our concern is not what you propagate rather food. Much of you are in a good life standard, food and shelter is not your concern. Why you nagging us to fight each other? why don’t you leave us to secure our food? We Oromoos are favored in the current regime than the past. Please, advise us to have an ally with other nations.
Now it looks the TPLF left the palace the amhara is coming to the way, history to repeat itself.
Jawar..much love and respect to you. I am optimist that there will be a time for you to have key role in Ethiopia’s politics. Some guy responded by refering his stomach problem, i do agree this guy might have a burning problem, food might be his concern right at this time. I feel sorry for that, or he might be just none sense person who is trying to confuse our young people.
Ofcourse i have a problem with lier diasporas, but not in a way he presented. Many diasporas are liers with no dedication. I don’t mean that there are no people like Jawar who are ready to do all what is possible to help their people. But the majority of the diasporas are just lying and their priority is again their stomach. Many diasporas are playing too much role in disuniting our people. With minimal or none contribution.
good analysis, although quite biased. i do strongly feel that we Oromos, Amharas and the rest have to stop blaming each other for what happened in the past and stop marginalising the tigreans. However, i do share the pain of being marginalised from the ethiopian politics for eons and really hope the time will come when a real democracy prevail;s in our common land
hope a time will come when we no more take ethnic bases as a talking point, albeit i totally comprehend the feeling of being marginalized from the ethiopian politics for eons. however, we also need to be sensitive not only to amharas who have been victims of the long standing stupid governors who trade on their names, but also to the tigreans who are just suffering as much as we do! jawar, really a great analyst although quite biased in my opinion
Thanks Jawar,That is really talent anlysis an liked thanks agian
Jawar I pray you go back in our country one day and become among our leaders!!! You are so clever and so analytical, sharp ! Oromo/Amhara/gurague/debub etc should unite to defeat tplf. That must be our first focus…meles divided us as ethnic cgroup on purpuse so when divided he and his gang can loot and own the country…Let us forcus on the primary goal: Defeat TPLF – They are calling our heros inside the country fighiting terrorist,..Mandela was also called a terrorist…but now he is a freedom symbol…then can call us whatever they want, but now we need to desmantle this TPLF …we should focus on our future and not reminding ourselves past failures to say this one is gurage, oromo, etc..the goal is to break TPLF …EACH OF US LET-S FOCUS ON THAT frist! WE NEED NEW LEADERSHIP NOT SIYE, NEGA ETC…people support Jawar…I am and I am not oromo…just like him, a true ethiopian…
Do U try to imagine Oromiya as an Independent country? .I am really surprised that the interview is about Ethiopia but almost 99 % of the comments are about Oromo. The succession of Oromiya will be bloody and destructive due to the nature of Ethiopia and the geographical position of Oromiya. if it succeed from Ethiopia,The religious composition of Oromiya is also another thing that makes Oromiya one of the failed states like somalia . oromiya is a state with muslim majority with sizable christian oromos. The Muslims will surely want to create Islamic Oromiya under sharia by oppressing Christians and the Christians will fight back; this leads to unstable Oromiya and blood shed; think of what happened in Jimma and Illubabur at the end of 1990s E.C. The resentment of Muslim oromos against christian Oromos due to past history is also a fuel that lead to severe problem; specially towards the so called the Shewa Oromo who were predominantly Christians as well as who used to have significant influence during the reign of Menelik and Hailesellasie compared with other Oromos.
please emancipate UR self from hate to non Oromo Ethiopians. and U have to work with all other Ethiopians to establish a country where Every body lives freely weather he is Amhara, Oromo, tigre or any other Ethiopian. Other wise waging a war and succeeding Oromiya will not be easy as well as Guarantee democratic Oromiya. Look Eritrea, they succeed from Ethiopia but they become worse off not better off, they are languishing in brutal dictator Esayas. You have to also think of the blood shed that will result from succession.The New generation should have its own vision for his country, it should not follow the plot of the old generation who are blinded and numbed by hatred politics.
In short struggling to create Democratic Ethiopia is Less costly but more beneficiary to Oromos as well as other non Oromo Ethiopians.
What the cost Oromia shall be free.Now ,after10,20 or after100 years.The strugle will continue.Oromia ,Afanoromo official language,Finfine Capital.
Cristan or muslim we are first Oromo.
My hats off my head to Jawar. Such a dedicated, well informed and capable guy. He is just a spice. An amazing analysis.
Having said that, I, Qoteebula, believe that the politics of haterage can’t take any one any further. What is helpful is that to better equip as oromos and outmanuever others. oromos need to defeat too much hambleness and go out and say that they are capable of taking leadership. They need to be shrewd in practicing politics. qotebuula believes that the ormos seriouslly lack that quality because of the culture of being too much humble and decent towards others. you, people, discuss about this and come out aggressively and claim it publically before those who oppose you and those who support you too. It needs political maturity and strong national feeling of being an oromo to bisect what is going and go up the ladder and claim it and change the game. Oromos need game changer.
Jawar is a matured political analyst.But, pls some nationalist oromo brothers do not try to marginalize him from ‘we’ other Ethiopians.He has all the right even to be a leader of the nation.I wish him all z best as a Gurage and Ethiopian.
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